07_基于城市化发展水平的城市人口集聚模式识别及其选择.doc

基于城市化发展水平的城市人口集聚模式识别及其选择 许 冰 （浙江工商大学数量经济研究所，浙江 杭州 310035） 摘要 本文利用非参数人口加权密度估计，以城市化发展水平为产出目标，探索中国城市人口集聚的模式识别及其选择。研究发现，2000－2004年，城市人口并非对称地集聚在城市化发展水平平均值左右的城市。考虑地域规模，从全市视角，人口主要是集聚在低于平均值的城市，而从辖区视角，人口主要是集聚在高于平均值的城市。考虑人口规模，从全市视角，不论大、中和小城市，人口都是集聚在低于平均值的城市，而从辖区视角，主要在大城市，人口是集聚在高于平均值的城市。结果蕴含，基于城市化发展水平，政府应引导人口集聚在大城市及其市辖区。 关键词 城市化发展水平，人口集聚，模式选择，非参数加权估计 The Identification and Selection of Population Concentration Mode for Chinese Cities Based on the Analysis on Urbanization Development Bing　Xu (Research Institute of Econometrics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hang Zhou, 310035) Abstract: Using the nonparametric kernel density weighted estimation method; the study identifies and selects the modes of population concentration for Chinese cities with the purpose of enhancing urbanization development level. It finds out the population of Chinese cities shows an asymmetrical concentration with the cities at average urbanization development level during 2000-2004. Taken the territorial perspective, the regional population mainly concentrates into the cities with their urbanization level lower than the average level, while the downtown population mainly concentrates into the cities with higher urbanization level compared with the average level. Taken the population perspective, the regional population of cities for each size (small, medium-sized and big city) mainly concentrates into the cities with urbanization level lower than the average level, while the downtown population of cities for each size, especially for big city, shows concentration with the cities at higher urbanization level. The results imply that the government should lead the population to concentrate into big cities and the downtown area of cities with the purpose of enhancing urbanization level. Key words: urbanization development level, population concentration, mode selection, nonparametric weighted estimation. 一、引言 人口迁移与城市化发展是经济发展的一个热点问题。D. Gale JOHNSON（2004）估计了 资助项目：国家社会科学基金（04BTJ003） 作者简介：许冰（1956－），男，浙江玉环人，