航空公司安全风险管理策略分析——基于航班延误的思考-analysis of airline safety risk management strategy - thinking based on flight delay.docx

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 航空公司安全风险管理策略研究 航空公司安全风险管理策略研究 I I PAGE PAGE IV 摘 要 航空公司是航空运输服务的承运人，其安全水平及服务质量的重要性不言而喻。随着民航 运输规模不断增大，航线网络愈发密集，飞行航班逐渐紧凑，发生不安全事件和航班延误的可 能性迅速增加。本文以研究航空公司安全风险管理策略为目标，分析安全风险与航班延误两者 的关联，提出有效的安全风险管理策略，为航空公司制定安全生产措施提供参考。 论文在剖析安全风险与航班延误的诱因后，根据两者诱因间的联系建立共因性指标体系， 利用问卷调查表获取相关数据。分析了安全风险与航班延误单共因指标的关联强度，引入模糊 综合评价法评价了航空公司的航班延误与安全风险状况。采用贝叶斯网络方法建模分析了两者 之间多共因指标的关联强度。结论是，安全风险与航班延误之间存在关联，具有较强的共因性。 最后，根据安全风险与航班延误之间的共因关联性，提出了一种航空公司安全风险管理策 略，即航空公司在制定安全风险管理策略时，应重视从航班延误的角度出发，寻找造成延误的 诱因并给予控制，从而提高航空公司的安全水平。 关键词：安全风险，安全管理策略，共因性，航班延误，贝叶斯网络 ABSTRACT Airlines are carriers of air transportation services. The importance of safety level and service quality is self-evident. With the increasing scale of the civil aviation transportation, airline networks are more intensive and flights are more compact. All of these increase the possibilities of unsafe incidents and flight delays. This paper analyzed relations between risks and flight delays with the goal of finding an efficient strategy of risk management that can be a reference for airlines in air transportation. After analyzing the causes of risks and flight delays, this paper set up an index system of common causes based on their relations. Relevant data were collected with questionnaires. In this paper, the relevance of single indexes among common causes was firstly analyzed. Fuzzy synthetic evaluation model was used to evaluate risks and flight delays for airlines operating in Nanjing. At the same time, Bayesian network model was used to analyze the relevance of multi-indexes among common causes. It is proved that there is quite strong relevance among common causes for risks and flight delays. Based on the strong relevance among common causes, this paper proposed a risk management strategy for airlines. That is, when airlines make their risk management strategy, finding causes for flight delays at first and controlling the causes to improve safety. Keywords：safety risks, safety management strategy, common causes, fl