经济增长、减贫与财政政策选择：一个中国的D-CGE模型.doc

经济增长、减贫与财政政策选择：一个中国的D-CGE模型 摘 要 总结了研究和实证模拟两方面的结论，指出了今后的发展方向，界定了当前研究的局限和不足，并对完善我国研究提出了改进建议。 关键词： 可计算一般均衡 Abstract The Chinese government has been pursuing rapid economic growth for a long time. However, after the world financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese economy slowed down because of the external shock of the global economic recession, which made the government facing new challenges in economic policy formulation to maintain reasonable and stable economic growth. Moreover, Chinese government seems to have underestimated the seriousness of poverty. According to international standards of the poverty line, China ranks second. Social inequality is worsening for the rapid development of economy, and the income gap between the regions has also reached a very high level. Therefore policy makers urgently need to make changes. Fiscal policy, which includes fiscal expenditure and tax revenue policy instruments, would be a good choice. The government can make full use of it to ensure the normal operation of macro-economy and adjust the economic structure. The thesis, funded by National Natural Science Fund Committee, studies on the Dynamic CGE modeling technology and its specific application, which includes two parts. First, this thesis studies on both the recursive dynamic CGE model of Keynes closure for China and SAM’s updating, balancing methods; second, it simulates two type of fiscal policy, 4-trillion fiscal stimulus package between 2009-2010 and individual income tax reform, giving directional advises to Chinese fiscal policy choices during transition period. First, based on IO tables in 2007, and combined with various statistical yearbooks and other relevant data, we establish the macro-SAM table in 2007. And on this basis, we refine it to get the original 19 departments, three categories of labor, and 12 groups of residents’ microeconomic SAM. In addition, we elaborate the defects of the original SAM, and provides motivation for researches of updating data and ba