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Additional remarks Real value of the Binding WTO has two values as a public good: Promote cooperative behavior Limit damages due to retaliations process and may deter it FDI may change the “dynamics” of trade liberalization Locking device Vicious and Virtuous circles The Potential Cost of the Doha Round Failure Antoine Bouet – David Laborde (a.bouet@; d.laborde@ ) WTO November 2nd 2010 – Geneva Overview Motivation Scenarios design Methodology Results Conclusions IFPRI discussion paper + IFPRI Policy Brief /publication/potential-cost-failed-doha-round-0 What is all about? Effects of finalizing the DDA negotiations Potential effects of not reaching an agreement Total cost the DDA failure How to assess the gains of the DDA? Traditional approach: Assessing the trade liberalization scenario negotiated versus the status-quo Combination of tariff scenario building and economic modeling (mainly through CGE assessment) In the last years, assessment of the gains (upper part of the iceberg) have melted away Better data Ongoing process of : regional liberalization (FTA between members, Side effects of the Custom Unions negotiations in Africa) and/or unilateral liberalization (India in 2004) Missing gains? (or the quest for big numbers?) Models are incomplete (Dynamic gains of trade liberalization…) Model improvement: see Will Martin’s comments on Consistent Aggregation Rethinking the assumption of status-quo New Scenario design We will focus on this last issue But, keep in mind that Quantitative Assessments using CGE obey some rules: Equilibrium models Most of them assume “constant employment of factors” (capital and labour) : Modelers like to model what they understand. Technology is exogenous Therefore, engines of growth are out of the story we look at: We are doomed to show you small GDP figures! They are driven by Efficiency gains (most of the case second order effects): allocative effects Interests of the CGE: comparing scenarios and their design Look at