Probability Coin Flipping and Dice Rolling概率掷硬币骰子滚动.ppt

SI 2007: Probability Ling Pun Coral Quackenbush Probability:Coin Flipping and Dice Rolling By Ling Pun and Coral Quackenbush Experimental versus Theoretical.. What’s the difference? * Objective: Sunshine Standards: MAE.1.3.1 Collects and displays data in a variety of ways MAE.2.3.1 Comparing experimental results with expectations Your students will be able to identify the similarities and differences of experimental versus theoretical probability and represent this data in a visual manner. Background and History Concepts of probability are as old as mankind itself. Pierre de Fermat Blaise Pascal Jacob Bernoulli Christiaan Huygens Pierre de Fermat, Blaise Pascal, and Christiaan Huygens gave the earliest known scientific treatment of probability. Game of flipping a coin: Let’s flip the coin ten times And record how many heads or Tails. What are your results ? HEADS TAILS Heads: Tails: Representation of Probability Experimental probability is the result of an experiment or simulation after a large number of times. Theoretical probability is what is expected to happen based on the possible outcomes, assuming equally likely events. Theoretical Experimental Let’s simulate 10 coin flips with Excel…. It should look something like this Construct an array: Select cells C2 through C11. Select the borders color fill. Use the function “=INT(2*RAND())” in each cell of the array to produce either a 1 or a 0. What function do you think we can use to simulate the experiment? Excel does not have heads and tails… what should we use? Heads = 1 Tails = 0 Now, we need to record our data. We need to use the “sum” function. ARRAY # of HEADS (result) TOTAL TRIALS Select the original array and drag it to the right… Now lets try it with 100 flips…. Now, we need to record our data. Remember: “sum” function. *