供需双重视角下人口结构变动与产业结构升级的互动机理研究.doc

供需双重视角下人口结构变动与产业结构升级的互动机理研究 改革与战略NO.7,2015 2015年第7期(Cumulatively,NO.263 ) REFORMATION amp; STRATEGY 第31卷(总第263期)DOI: 10 .16331/j.cnki.issnl 002-736x.20 15.07 .033 供需双重视角下人口结构变动与产业结构升级的互动机理研究梁树广(聊城大学商学院，山东聊城252059)[摘要]一个国家产业结构升级能力与其所拥有的人口数量、质量及其结构状况紧密相关，产业结构升级亦会对人口结构产生回馈效应。文章从供需双重视角，构建人口结构与产业结构升级的理论框架和计量模型，揭示人口规模、人口职业、人口分布、人口素质、人口年龄、人口性别等方面的变动对产业结构升级的影响和产业结构升级对人口结构的影响，认为人口结构与产业结构具有相互反映与相互影响的特点，并提出推动二者良性互动的措施。[关键词]人口结构;产业结升级;互动;机理[中图分类号1F293.3文献标识码]A [文章编号11 002-736X(2015)07 -0133-06 Interaction Mechanism of Population Structure and Upgrading of Industrial Structure Under the Dual Perspective of Supply and Demand Liang Shuguang (Business School, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng, Shandong 252059) Abstract: There are c10sely relations between the abi1ity of upgrading of industrial structure and popul础。nquantJ纱，population quality and population structural conditions. Upgrading of industrial structure wi11 generate feedback effects on the population structure. The paper establishes the theoretical framework and econometric models of population structure and industrial structure upgrading under the dual perspective of supply and demand, reveals that the variation of population size, population occupation, population distribution, population quality, population age, gender and other aspects ofthe popu1ation effect on upgrading ofindus创alstructure and upgrading of indus位ials阳C阳reeffects on the population structur哇，considers population structure and industrial structure have the characteristics of refleding each other and interaction, and proposed measures to promote positive interaction between the population structure and upgrading of indus位ialstructure. Key words: population structure; upgrading of industrial structure; interaction; mechanism 一、苦|言关键时期，产业结构升级是转变经济发人口结构变化会对产业结构升级产生很展方式的重要手段。人口是产业的基础强的制约或引导作用，一个国家产业结我国正处于;转方式，调结构;的和支撑，是产业结构的重要要素禀赋，构转换能力与其所拥有的人口数量、质[基金项目]本文为山东省产业升级与经济协同发展软科学研究基地项目:高唐县域经济跨越发展研究;山东软科学研究计划项目:山东西部地区承接产业转移的环境效应及其调控对策研究(项目编号2014RKB01613)。l作者简介]梁树广(1