土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响.doc

土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响 　　摘 要 　　近几年来，我国经济高速发展，房地产市场也繁荣发展。政府从土地出让和相关税收中获得了巨大的财政收益，其出台的一系列优惠政策又间接促进了房地产投资市场的进一步扩大。一些经济相对发达、公共服务水平较高的城市，人们对房屋的需求急剧扩张，房价一路飙升。因此本文利用面板数据模型从定性和定量角度分析了土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响，实证部分则分别从全国和区域两个层面进行了研究，对结果进行分析，并以此为依据有针对性的提出政策建议，引导房地产业健康发展。 　　首先，阐述了土地财政的概念，分析土地出让价格与房价关系的四象限模型以及房地产税收资本化模型。随后阐述了 Tiebout 模型以及 Oates、Hamilton 和 Fischel对该模型的扩展研究，并在此基础上建立模型，对公共品的资本化过程进行推导。 　　其次，分析我国房地产业、土地财政和地方公共支出的基本现状，发现我国房地产价格、土地出让金、土地相关税收和地方公共支出均稳步上升且存在区域差异性。描述了土地财政及公共支出与房价的波动特征，两者均与房价存在正相关关系。 　　再次，利用 2002-2012 年我国 30 个省市自治区的数据构建面板模型，分别从全国和区域两个层面上探讨了土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响，土地出让收入和地方公共支出始终与房价正相关，土地相关税收与房价负相关。 　　最后，根据实证研究结果，并结合我国现阶段的实际情况，提出合理可行的政策建议。 　　关键词：土地财政；地方公共支出；房价；面板数据模型 　　Abstract 　　In recent years, the real estate market has a great prosperity in our country with therapid economic development .The government gets huge financial income from land-related taxes and introduces a series of preferential policies which indirectly contribute tothe further expansion of the real estate investment market. Since the dramatic increase indemand for house, the real estate also has rapid rise in some cities which has relativelydeveloped economy and high level of public services .This study analyzes the impacts ofland finance and local public expenditure on real estate price from qualitative andquantitative view by using panel data analysis. It also makes an analysis and briefcomment on the results and reasons from the national and regional levels in the empiricalpart. Finally, the study put forward policy recommendations in order to promote thehealthy development of real estate industry. 　　First of all, the article introduces the concept of land finance and analyzes thefour-quadrant model between land prices and housing prices and real estate taxcapitalization model. Then it elaborates the Tiebout model and extension study of Tieboutmodel by Oates and Hamilton. Basing on this model, it deduces the process ofcapitalization of public goods. 　　Secondly, the article shows the basic status of the