自动化取代专家.ppt

自動化取代專家? The death of expertise From The Economist 2007/9/13 Ian Ayres - a professor of law and management at Yale University Challenges Human intuition (直覺 ) and flair (洞察力 ) are more easily beaten The sheer quantity of data and the computer power now available make it possible for automated processes to surpass human experts in fields as diverse as rating wines, writing film dialogue and choosing titles for books. AdWords The author originally intended to call his book “The end of intuition”. He changed his mind after a Google AdWords campaign which randomly chose which of two advertisements for the book “Super Crunchers” garnered 63% more clicks than his original choice. Credit card companies use similar randomised trials to see which combination of offers and advertising make for the most successful mailshots. Advertise your business on Google No matter what your budget, you can display your ads on Google and our advertising network. Pay only if people click your ads. You create your ads Targeted reach Greater control Measurable value Set your budget Pay only for results Local and regional targeting Automated decision-making Mr Ayres predicts that automated decision-making will soon see other professional jobs going the same way as that of the bank-loan officer, once well-paid and responsible and now a mere call-centre operative, paid peanuts to parrot the words a computer prompts. Doctor Teacher Who else Doctors will have to face up to the fact that computers can diagnose illnesses better than they can Teachers will find that although their presence is needed to engage their pupils, their professional judgment often is not. When teaching small children to read, for example, tightly scripted lessons, their exact content and timing honed(用磨刀石磨利) by randomised trials, do best Conclusion This book presents a convincing and disturbing vision of a future in which everyday decision-making is increasingly automated, and the role of human judgment restr