风险的n种面孔（N faces of risk）.docVIP

风险的n种面孔（N faces of risk） Normally, the risks that can be controlled are not as alarming as the uncontrollable risks, even though the former is more likely to occur. The traffic accident happened in between Milan and Venice on the freeway is extremely high risk, but not to feel fear, because people can take control of the steering wheel, you decide to venture to drive fast, take life a joke. We tend to assess risks with emotions, experiences, numbers, or personal preferences, and reason is always marginalized, and the result is that we dont recognize risk. Risk relativity In the newspaper I read every day, there was a page to let readers know more about scientific knowledge. One of the reports introduced the latest research papers in the worlds most authoritative journals. People with higher cholesterol levels are 50% more likely to suffer from heart disease than people, and people who think about high cholesterol must be very upset after reading it. At this point we may think: what exactly does this number want to convey? Lets first present the same data in other ways. According to forecasts, age of 50 people with normal cholesterol levels, 100 in every 4 people in the next 10 years suffering from myocardial infarction; the same age but cholesterol is high, there are 6 people suffer from myocardial infarction. The corresponding is 50% written in the newspaper, because the increase of 2 people is half of 4 people, that is, 50%. A 4 person increase of 2 represents a relative risk increase of 50%, but we can also represent the same data in a different way - focusing on the improvement of absolute risk. In this case, absolute risk only increased by 2%, that is, the difference between 6 or 4 people in 100 people. Compared with 50%, the number 2% will weaken the psychological shock caused by the report on the readers with high cholesterol. As long as we understand this, we will calmly think about what the numbers are saying, rather than worrying too much. For another exam