房地产行业周期性投资价值分析-analysis of periodic investment value in real estate industry.docx

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房地产行业周期性投资价值分析-analysis of periodic investment value in real estate industry.docx

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房地产行业周期性投资价值分析-analysis of periodic investment value in real estate industry

AbstractInrecentyears,therealestateindustryhasbeeninthecenterofattentionandmediaexposure.Theincreaseofhousingpriceshasledtoconcernsaboutthebubble.Therealestate-orientedeconomicsmodelbegantobequestioned.Butnodoubt,therealestateindustryisanimportantpillarofthenationaleconomy.Itpullsiron,steel,buildingmaterials,homeappliancesandotherhouseholdproductsindustry.Italsoplaysanimportantroleinthestabilityanddevelopmentoffinance.Therealestateindustrypromotestheupgradingofconsumptionstructureandimprovespeople’slivelihood.Fromatheoreticalorpracticalsense,it’snecessarytocarryouttheoreticalanalysisandempiricalstudiesoftherealestateindustryandequityinvestment.Thispaperbeganwiththeanalysisofthepropertiesoftherealestateindustry,thedevelopmentprocessoftheindustry,theprofitstructure,influencingfactors,anddevelopmentstatusandperiodicityjudgment.Thispaperhasfocusedonanalyzingthemacro-policy,supplyanddemandfactorsintermsofrealestatedevelopment.Bycontrastwiththemacro-economiccycle,thispaperhasusedfinancialanalysistogiveusamoreintuitiveunderstandingofthecyclicalnatureofrealestateindustry.Throughthecollationofdataontheplate,thispaperhasselectedthenecessaryfactorsintothemodel,analyzedtheresultsofregressionandusedprincipalcomponentanalysisincludedinvariancedecompositionandfactorextractionprocedure.Thispaperhasanalyzedandsummarizedtheimpactofvariables.Accordingtotheresults,thispaperhasobtainedtwomajorfactors,whicharemacro-controlandspendingandincome.Onthebasis,thispaperhasbegantheanalysisoftheprice-earningsratio.Withthestatisticsofdifferencesbetweentherealestateindustryandtheindices,thispaperhasexploredthetrendofthestockandmadequantitativeanalysisofthespillovereffect.Onthebasisofthecyclicalindustryandsecuritiesmarketsperiodicity,thispaperhasgivenaviableinvestmentstrategy.Keywords:RealestatePeriodicityInvestmentstrategyPrincipalcomponentanalysis目录摘要...............................................................................................................IAbstract.............................