广东省能源回弹效应的测算及其影响因素分析-calculation of energy rebound effect in guangdong province and analysis of its influencing factors.docx

摘 要由于矿产资源不足，广东省能源生产受到限制，但是能源消耗却居高不下， 成为能源消耗最大的地区之一。在“十一五”时期和“十二五”前期，广东省密 集出台了一系列促进低碳发展的政策措施，在机制上也做了相应调整，其中很重 要的一条就是大力推动技术进步，以求达到节约能源的目的，而能源回弹效应的 存在会影响节能政策实施的有效性，本文研究的目的在于分析能源回弹的大小及 其影响因素，并针对广东省实际情况讨论节能发展的方向。本文首先利用全要素生产率代替广义技术进步，测算出广东省 1985-2013 年 的能源回弹效应，发现长期以来广东省的能源回弹效应一直存在，大部分年份处 于“部分回弹”状态，能源回弹的大小略高于全国水平；然后从理论上分析影响 回弹效应的因素，并用 VEC 模型（Vector Error Correction Model）对能源回弹的 影响因素进行实证分析，对相关变量进行估计，发现出口规模对能源回弹的大小 产生正的影响，而能源价格、产业结构（第三产业占地区生产总值比重）的影响 则相反。本文在理论和实证分析的基础上提出政府制定政策时不能忽视能源回弹 的影响，应该通过提高能源价格、优化产业结构、调整出口结构等措施控制能源 回弹效应，从而达到更好的政策效果。关键词：能源；回弹效应；节能减排；全要素生产率IAbstractDue to insufficient mineral resources, energy production in Guangdong has been restricted. But with high energy consumption, Guangdong has became one of the largest energy consumption area. Guangdong had continuously published a series of low carbon policy measures and made adjustments to the mechanisms accordingly during the eleventh and the twelfth five-year. One crucial policy of them was to vigorously promote technological progress in order to achieve the goal of energy saving, but the presence of energy rebound effect will affect the validity of the implementation of energy conservation policy. This dissertation aims to explore the size and influence factors of rebound effect, and discuss the direction of the development of energy-saving in Guangdong.This dissertation firstly applies total factor productivity instead of generalized technical progress to measure the size of energy rebound effect in Guangdong over the years from 1985 to 2013, the results show that energy rebound effect always exits in Guangdong in the long term, and the size of energy rebound effect slightly higher than the national average size; second, analyze the influence factors of energy rebound effect theoretically, then carry out the empirical study through VEC (Vector Error Correction Model) the result shows that the scale of export has a positive impact on energy rebound effect, and the impact of energy price and industrial struct