基于过滤理论的中国住房保障政策分析-analysis of chinas housing security policy based on filtration theory.docx

AbstractHow low-and-medium-income population can afford to buy a house is always a major issue of any country, relating to the sustainable economic development and the social equity. With the widening of the income gap, the rapid urbanization and the housing market-oriented reforms, the housing price has risen to a higher position in the past 10 years or so; housing supply structure is moving towards high-end; and many low-and-medium-income residents are still unable to have a set of desirable house. In this background, the research of how to use the housing guarantee policies to address the housing problems of low-and-medium-income groups is important in theory and practice.Similar to the basic idea of the filter theory, the nature of the housing guarantee problem can be summarized as the dynamic matching of the housing level and the income level. With the filtration process of the housing market as the starting point, this study constructs a model based on general equilibrium theory, analyzes the filtration process of the housing market in the full market state, and sums up the independent and the consolidated features of two types of guarantee policies.In China, the over-prosperity of the real estate market, especially the high-end real estate market and the slow development of the affordable housing co-exist. The analysis results show that the widespread speculation in the real estate market and the housing market bubbles thereof have played a huge role in pushing up the housing prices and resulted in the rapid spread of the non-rational investment behavior from the high-end real estate to the low-end real estate in time and space, leading to the filter blocking of the current housing market, i.e. the high-end real estate is difficult to filter through the market to achieve the quality decrease to get into the low-end market.In the blocking case of the natural filtration in the housing market, the mismatch of the residents income levels and housing supply l