中国银行业报告.pdf

Hong Kong / China Industry Focus DBS Group Research . Equity 19 December 2007 NEUTRAL HSI: 26,733 China Banking (Downgrade from Overweight) ANALYST Rising macroeconomic and policy risks Jasmine Lai · (852) 2971 1926 · jasmine_lai@ We have turned more cautious amid the recent shift in China’s monetary policy stance to a tightening bias and Sophia Huo · (852) 2820 4677 · sophia_huo@ deepening of US economic slowdown. Deposit rates may rise more than lending rates in order to lessen negative real deposit CHINA BANKING SECTOR rate. A tight lid will be placed on the property sector. New Old % Small banks’ share prices will be de-rated more than the big Target Target Recomm- Upside three banks, given that: 1) they may need to slow down their Close Price Price endation loan growth more and 2) they are trading at more demanding (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (%) valuations. ICBC 5.50 6.15 8.35 BUY 12% Our sector’s earnings were cut by 7%, 13% and 16% for (1398) BOC 2007-09 respectively. We have factored in lower NIM, lower (3988) 3.81 4.35