中国应允许地方政府发行债券？ Should Local Governments in China b.pdf

Should Local Governments in China be Allowed to Issue Debt? Li-Gang Liu Senior Fellow RIETI RIETI BBL Presentation-LIU 1 Structure of the presentation I. Introduction: Pros and cons of local government debt issuing II. Current local government debt problem III. Using fiscal rules to overcome excessive local government debts IV. Some preconditions for local government debt issuing V. Sequencing local government debt market development RIETI BBL Presentation-LIU 2 I. Introduction: Pros and cons of allowing local government to issue debt Fiscal sustainability is a risk factor Central government’s overall debt level high (over 100% percent GDP) if including contingent fiscal liability Small revenue to GDP ratio (18.5%) Interest payment in total expenditure is high Limited redistributive power led to severe regional (10 times), urban-rural (3 times), and individual income inequality (Gini coefficient close to .5) RIETI BBL Presentation-LIU 3 Stock of contingent liabilities is large S t o c k o f C o n t in g e n t a n d E x p lic it D e b t 2 5 2 0 1 5 t n e c r e P 1 0 5 0 F in a n c ia l s e c to r lia b ilit ie s A d d it io n a l f in a n c ia l s e c to r P e n s io n l ia b ilit ie s F o re ig n p u b lic ly P u b lic d o m e s t ic a n d (a s s u m in g 2 0 % lo a n lo s s ) lia b ilit ie s (4 0 % o f lo a n