中国特大城市小汽车保有政策效果评估：北京与上海的比较研究.ppt

CHEN,ZHANG School of Transportation Engineering * Tongji University 同济大学交通运输工程学院 School of Transportation Engineering Evaluate of the Effects of Car Ownership Policies in Chinese Megacities:A Contrastive Study of Beijing and Shanghai中国特大城市小汽车保有政策效果评估：北京与上海的比较研究 CHEN Xiaohong, ZHANG Hua Tongji University, Shanghai, China Oct/2011 陈小鸿 同济大学 2011年10月 Content 内容 1 Introduction 概述 Literature Reviews 文献综述 2 4 3 Overview of Car Ownership Policies in the Two Megacities 北京与上海小汽车保有量政策回顾 5 Data, Methodology and Effects Evaluation 数据、方法论和效果评估 Discussions and Implications 讨论和启示 2 6 Conclusions 结论 1. Introduction 概述 Rapid Growth on Car Ownership Over Last 20 Years in China 中国过去20年小汽车保有量快速增长 The rapid increase in car ownership is emerging in many low income countries as their prosperity begins to grow, such as in China. 随着经济发展，中国及许多低收入水平国家的小汽车保有量快速增长 1986-2009, the total mount of passenger car in China has grown from 0.97 million to 48.5 million. 1986-2009，中国小汽车保有量从97万增至4850万。 1986-2009, the ownership level per thousand capita has increased from 0.90 to 36.3 units. 人均小汽车保有量从0.90增至36.3。 1. Introduction概述 Income Elasticity Indicated the Growth Trend Would be Continued in the Next 20 Years 收入弹性显示未来20年将会持续增长 1996-2009, the stocks of passenger car and per capita level had enhanced by 8.9 times and 8.1 times respectively. 1996-2009，小汽车总量和人均拥有量分别增加了8.9和8.1倍 1996-2009,The income elasticity remained as 2.40, while the corresponding number was 0.97 during 1978-1995. 1996-2009， 收入弹性保持在2.40，而在1978-1995仅为0.70 Referenced to the empirical regularities in developed countries, the increasing trend would be continued for next 20 or even more years. 参照发达国家的经验数据，未来20年这一增长趋势将会持续。 Long-run Vehicle Ownership Trend 小汽车保有量长期发展趋势 1. Introduction 概述 Private Car being as an Important Travel mode in Metropolitans over Last 20 Years in China 过去20年私家车正成为中国大都市重要的出行方式 1980s-early of 1990s, the proportion of automobile in model split could be negligible or at a very low level