毕业论文外翻译-低碳经济.doc

本科毕业论文（设计） 外 文 翻 译 原文： Low carbon economy This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy–Economy–Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology sub Model, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM sub model uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario, with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political frame work for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment. Climate change, as a result of rising greenhouse gas emissions, threatens the stability of the world’s climate, economy and population. The causes and consequences of climate change are global, and while national governments can and should take action, the ultimate solution must be a collective global effort. The latest scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) has further strengthened the evidence base that it is very likely that anthropogenic GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate syste