2010绿色发展与科技创新高层论坛：From AR4 to AR5 For IPCC WGI.ppt

Glacier Area (km2) Area Variation Volumn (km3) Volume Variation 59415 ?21% 5463 ?20% Glacier Changes in Area and Volume, China, since LIA The Changes from the 1960s/1970s to the 2000s Averaged recession exceeds 10% with the maximum of 70%. 1994 1986 1980 1973 1962 No.1 Glacier in Tianshan Urumqi Riverhead since LIA and since 1962 Increase in Permafrost temperatures: Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Zhao et al., 2010 Projection of Future Climate Change in China under SRES A1B * Projection of Climate Change in China under B1 (low), A1B (moderate), and A2 (high) scenarios Multi-model projections showed that annual mean temperature would rise by 2.5, 3.8, and 4.6 ℃ (relative to 1980-1999) in China during 2080-2099 under B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios, respectively, higher than that of global mean. Low Moderate Temp. Prec. High * For adaptation/mitigation studies, improved understanding ? key aspects of climate system down to regional scale, -e.g. precipitation, circulation, sea level, extremes etc To inform policy choices through improved climate projections, need a better understanding: ? Climate feedbacks related to clouds, carbon cycle biosphere, mass balance of ice sheets, ocean circulation etc., ? Climate forcings (e.g. from all aerosol sources, land use changes) couplings of forcings to changes other than global mean temperature (e.g. circulation changes) THANKS! Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WGI AR5 1st Lead Author Meeting: From AR4 to AR5 Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WGI AR5 1st Lead Author Meeting: From AR4 to AR5 Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WGI AR5 1st Lead Author Meeting: From AR4 to AR5 From AR4 to AR5: For IPCC WGI QIN Dahe Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I China Meteorological Administration and SKLCS of CAS Beijing China 18 November 2010 LUO Yong National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration Center for Earth System Scien