基于马尔科夫二次规划模型的黑龙江省林业产业结构的有序度测算与优化.doc

基于马尔科夫二次规划模型的黑龙江省林业产业结构的有序度测算与优化 林 业 科 学 SCIENTIA SILVAE SINICAE Vo1．50，No．9 Sep．，2 0 1 4 doi：10．11707／j．1001—7488 基于马尔科夫二次规划 产业结构的有序 模型的黑龙江省林业 度测算与优化 吕洁华 张洪瑞 张 滨 (东北林业大学经济管理学院 哈尔滨 150040) 摘 要： 通过运用二次规划数学模型求得林业产业结构的马尔科夫转移矩阵，对2012--2020年黑龙江省林业产 业目标结构进行预测，选择2012，2015和2020年计算结果为参照标准，测算 1998--2011年黑龙江省林业产业结构 的发展有序度，定量考察黑龙江省林业产业结构优化调整程度。结果表明：黑龙江省林业产业结构正处于动态的 优化中，尤其是2006--2011年，依据选取的 73个参照标准，有序度值依次为 0．97～0．98，0．92—0．93和 0．89— 0．9O，说明近些年黑龙江省林业产业结构调整程度较好 ，但仍需进一步深化调整。根据研究结果及黑龙江省林业 产业现状，提出优化林业产业结构的思路与策略。 关键词 ： 林业产业结构；有序度 ；目标产业结构；马尔科夫二次规划模型；优化策略 中图分类号：s7—93 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001—7488(2014)09—0138一O7 Order Degree Calculation and Optimization on Forestry Industrial Structure of Heilongjiang Province Based on Markov Quadratic Programming Model Lu Jiehua Zhang Hongrui Zhang Bin (College ofEconomics and Management，Northeast Forestry University Harbin 150040) Abstract： In this study，a quadratic programming model was used to obtain Markov transition matrix of the forestry industry structure，which was applied to predict the forestry target industrial structure of Heilongjiang province from 2012 to 2020．The calculated results of 2012，2015 and 2020 were chosen as the reference standard，the development order degree of forestry industrial structure of Heilongjiang province from 1998 to 201 1 was calculated，and the adjustment degree of forestry industrial structure of Heilongjiang province was quantitatively studied．The results showed that the forestry industry structure of Heilongjiang province was in process of dynamic optimization，especially in 2006—20 1 1．The order degree values were successively among 0．97—0．98，0．92—0．93 and 0．89—0．90，indicating that the adjustment degree of forestry industrial structure in Heilongjiang province in recent years was well，but the forestry industry still needs to be further adjusted．Based on the results and the actual situation of Heilongjiang forestry industry，the strategies 1o optimize the forestry industrial struct