人口模型与人口政策导向分析毕业的设计.doc

人口模型与人口政策导向分析 摘要 人口的发展状况与国民经济各方面都有着密切的联系，直接影响着经济的繁荣与社会的发展。人口预测是制定和顺利实践社会经济各项战略设想的基础和出发点，是制定正确的人口政策的科学依据。作为人口大国的中国，人口的分析和预测对我国的社会进步和经济发展具有更为重大的现实意义和长远意义。 针对我国目前人口现状出现的一些新特点，例如，老龄化进程加速，出生人口性别比持续升高，以及乡村人口城镇化等多种因素，本文建立人口发展方程，结合最优控制原理及曲线拟合等技术，分别建立了城镇和乡村男、女性人口变化模型.通过实际数据的检验，结果表明该模型能够较好地刻画我国目前的人口现状,从而用它可以预测我国人口的未来发展趋势并为国家进行相关人口政策的制定提供必要的理论指导，以便掌握我国人口的发展规律，进而使人口发展与国民经济发展相适应，更好的满足人民日益增长的物质和文化的需要。 根据模型预测，在2015年，我国人口将达到139846万人；在2030年，我国人口将达到峰值144679万人；在2050年将达到141527万人.这与国家人口发展战略研究报告中预测的数据接近.从全国总人口变化曲线上直接看来，在国家人口政策相对稳定的情况下，2030年后我国人口逐渐有所减少. 关键词 人口模型,人口政策 ,最优控制原理,曲线拟合，人口增长率 ABSTRACT The development status of the population and the national economy is closely linked to a direct impact on economic prosperity and social development. The population projections are the scientific basis for the development and smooth implementation of the strategic vision of socio-economic foundation and starting point is to establish the correct population policy. As the most populous country, China, population analysis and forecasts on Chinas social progress and economic development of great practical significance and long-term significance.Some new characteristics of Chinas current population status appears, for example, the aging process to accelerate, the sex ratio at birth continues to rise, as well as the rural population, urbanization and other factors, this paper establishes the population equation, combined with the optimal control principle and curve fitting together, etc., were established towns and villages, male, female population change models through the inspection of the actual data, the results show that the model can better characterize the current population situation in China, so it can predict the future development trend of Chinas population and related to population policy formulation for the state to provide the necessary theoretical guidance, in order to master the law of development of Chinas population, thereby enabling the population development and the development of