Forecasting and Demand Management, Managing Uncertainty预测和需求管理，管理不确定性.ppt

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2018-06-15 发布于福建
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Forecasting and Demand Management, Managing Uncertainty预测和需求管理，管理不确定性.ppt

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Forecasting and Demand Management, Managing Uncertainty预测和需求管理，管理不确定性

* Notes: * Notes: * * Notes: * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Notes: * * * * * Notes: * Notes: * Notes: * Notes: * * * * Notes: * * * * * * * * * MANAGING UNCERTAINTY 11-* Role of Inventory in the Supply Chain 11-* The Role of Safety Inventory in a Supply Chain Forecasts are rarely completely accurate If average demand is 1000 units per week, then half the time actual demand will be greater than 1000, and half the time actual demand will be less than 1000; what happens when actual demand is greater than 1000? If you kept only enough inventory in stock to satisfy average demand, half the time you would run out Safety inventory: Inventory carried for the purpose of satisfying demand that exceeds the amount forecasted in a given period 11-* Role of Safety Inventory Average inventory is therefore cycle inventory plus safety inventory There is a fundamental tradeoff: Raising the level of safety inventory provides higher levels of product availability and customer service Raising the level of safety inventory also raises the level of average inventory and therefore increases holding costs Very important in high-tech or other industries where obsolescence is a significant risk (where the value of inventory, such as PCs, can drop in value) Compaq and Dell in PCs 11-* Two Questions to Answer in Planning Safety Inventory What is the appropriate level of safety inventory to carry? What actions can be taken to improve product availability while reducing safety inventory? 11-* Determining the AppropriateLevel of Safety Inventory Measuring demand uncertainty Measuring product availability Replenishment policies Evaluating cycle service level and fill rate Evaluating safety level given desired cycle service level or fill rate Impact of required product availability and uncertainty on safety inventory 11-* Determining the AppropriateLevel of Demand Uncertainty Appropriate level of safety inventory determined by: supply or demand uncertainty desired level of product av