Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics On the roles of risk and ability异构财富动力学对风险和能力作用.pptVIP

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Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics On the roles of risk and ability异构财富动力学对风险和能力作用.ppt

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Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics On the roles of risk and ability异构财富动力学对风险和能力作用

Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics:On the roles of risk and ability Paulo Santos and Christopher B. Barrett Cornell University Introduction Poverty traps are commonplace in policy debates today. But are there really poverty traps? Mixed evidence, based largely on tests of just one type (multiple equilibria traps) If so, why do they exist and for whom? Multiple dynamic equilibria Conditional/club convergence based on immutable characteristics, w/unique L-L eqln These are not mutually exclusive, but do have significantly different policy implications And what role , if any, do risk and ability play? Integrating the two poverty trap mechanisms: where y is a measure of well-being (assets for us) i indexes individuals s indexes states of nature t indexes time periods c indexes cohorts/clubs h is the high equilibrium, ? is the low equilibrium γc is a cohort-specific threshold [γc=0 implies unique eqln, while αc=α and gc( )=g( ) imply common/unique path dynamics] We want to understand these dynamics wrt assets among a very poor population Boran pastoralists and Data Lybbert et al. (2004 EJ) found nonlinear, bifurcated wealth dynamics among Boran pastoralists in southern Ethiopia We use three data sets to unpack these wealth dynamics further Desta/Lybbert data: 17-year herd histories, 1980-97, for 55 households in 4 woredas in southern Ethiopia. Rich longitudinal data but very few useful x-sectional covariates PARIMA data: quarterly/annual panel, 2000-3 on 120 households in same woredas. Kenyan subsample from these data likewise exhibit S-shaped herd dynamics (Barrett et al. 2006 JDS). Subjective herd growth expectations of PARIMA hhs, 2004 randomly selected herd size within 4 Lybbert et al. intervals asked herders their rainfall expectations for next year (A/N/B) and elicited conditional herd size distributions, given the random start value established if respondent had ever managed a herd approximately that size Our questions: Are these dynamics