利率市场化对我国经济增长影响 .doc

毕 业 设 计（ 论 文 ） 题 目 利率市场化对我国 经济增长的影响 作者 学院 商学院 专业 经济学 学号 指导教师 二〇〇九年六月五日 摘 要 随着经济体制改革的深入推进，利率市场化已成为我国金融改革的重点之一。利率市场化改革能否更有效理顺利率机制、促进经济增长是一个值得研究的问题。本文结合我国经济转轨时期的具体国情，基于配置机制、投资的约束机制、储蓄的利率动员机制、消费的利率引导机制、通货膨胀的诱发机制和借贷双方的激励机制对利率市场化对我国经济增长的影响进行了分析，并通过建立两个博弈模型加强的约束机制和借贷双方激励机制的论证，从理论上论证了利率市场化有利于理顺我国利率与经济增长间的传导机制，使政府能够通过引导市场基准利率，更好地实现宏观经济调控，从而有利于我国长久稳定的经济增长。在收集整理了我国1981年至2007年的宏观数据基础上，对利率市场化改革前后实际利率与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。逐一分析了利率与储蓄、消费投资的变化趋势，并对实际利率和经济增长率做了平稳性、协整关系。实证分析验证了利率市场化改革有助于我国经济增长的观点文章在最后有针对性地提出了相关的政策建议。 ABSTRACT With deeply promoting economic reform, market-oriented interest rate becomes one of priorities of financial reform. Whether market-oriented interest rate can rationalize the rate mechanism and promote the growth of economy becomes an issue worthy to study. This article, with the economic transition of China’s specific national condition, bases on the funding allocation mechanism of interest rate, the investment constraint mechanism of interest rate, savings mobilization mechanism of interest rate, consumption guidance mechanisms of interest rate, inflation-induced mechanism and incentive mechanism both lenders and borrowers of interest rate, and makes analysis of impact, which market-oriented interest rate may effect the growth of economic of China. The establishment of two game models strengthens demonstration of the investment constraint mechanism of interest rate and incentive mechanism both lenders and borrowers of interest rate. The article proves that market-oriented interest rate is good to rationalize the mechanism between our rate and economic growth, and enables the government to guide the benchmark interest rate to realize macro-economic regulation, which is favorable for long-term and stable growth of our economic. After collecting the macro-economic data from 1981 to 2007, the article makes empirical analysis of the relationships between actual interest rate and economic growth. The article analyses the changing trend of interest rate