城市脆弱性评价方法及应用研究20102015年北京市实证分析.docxVIP

城市脆弱性评价方法及应用研究 ——2010~2015年北京市的实证分析 摘要：研究小组从经济、社会、生态环境三方面构建城市脆弱性综合评价体系，运用模糊综合评价方法计算城市脆弱性指数，进而借助GIS手段对北京市2010~2015年期间脆弱性进行评估和分析。研究发现：东城区和西城区的脆弱性程度明显高于其他行政区；朝阳区、丰台区、石景山区的脆弱性程度始终徘徊在较低度脆弱性和中度脆弱性之间；海淀区、房山区、通州区、大兴区和门头沟行政区脆弱性程度徘徊于较低度脆弱性与低度脆弱性之间；顺义区、昌平区、怀柔区、平谷区、密云县和延庆县处于低度脆弱性。该定量测度结果在时间维度上的发展变化和预期，可为综合调控提供决策依据，而综合调控则直接用来指导城市脆弱性的调控实践。因而，在此评估基础上，从优化空间规划布局、调整经济发展方向、提高社会应对能力、改善生态系统状况，提出“去脆弱性”建议。 关键词：城市脆弱性；综合评估；ArcGIS；北京 Study on urban vulnerability assessment method and its application --An empirical analysis of Beijing during 2010~2015 Abstract: From such aspects as urban ecological environment, economy and society,vulnerability evaluation system was set up. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the urban vulnerability index, and then the vulnerability during 2010-2015 time and space structure evolution was analyzed by ArcGIS. The results show that the levels of vulnerability in the eastern and western of Beijing were significantly higher than those of other regions. The vulnerability of Chaoyang, Fengtai, and Shijingshan has been between low and moderate vulnerability during period from 2010 to 2015; the vulnerability of the Haidian district, Fangshan district, Tongzhou district, Daxing district and the area of the gateway has been between lower and low vulnerability; In Shunyi, Changping district, Huairou district, Pinggu district, Miyun county, and Yanqing county is relatively far from the central city, the population density is significantly lower than other area, the degree of vulnerability are often in a low vulnerability. The research results provide scientific basis for the planning, construction and development of urban government. Keywords: urban vulnerability; spatio-temporal evolution; Beijing 城市脆弱性是经济脆弱???、社会脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性的综合体现。城市脆弱性的评价与调控研究对提升中国城镇化质量、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。伴随着大量人口和经济向城市集聚，城市正成为各种灾害和风险的多发地，城市脆弱性不断加重，随着时间的推移，慢性沉积效应越来越被放大，形成“累积”过程效应和累计放大效应，这种慢性沉积和放大过程久而久之地累积超过一定阈值时，城市就会脱离持续发展状态，脆弱性逐步加大，一旦遇到外部干扰因素的“催化”，脆弱性状态就会加速放大效应甚至突变效应，导致城市系统崩溃。新型