Fear of Floating or Fear of Flying：Exchange Rate Policy in the New Mille.ppt

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2018-06-21 发布于河南
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Fear of Floating or Fear of Flying：Exchange Rate Policy in the New Mille.ppt

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Fear of Floating or Fear of Flying：Exchange Rate Policy in the New Mille

Storyboard The basics: The debate post-Bretton Woods The tradeoff: Exchange rate regimes and the real economy The evidence: Regimes in the 2000s The FIT (float + inflation targeting) paradigm: natural evolution or fad? Fear of flying: building a case for a proactive exchange rate policy The basics The real view (‘70s) Trade (and welfare) gains vis à vis users of the peg currency vs. loss of the exchange rate as a shock absorber in the presence of nominal rigidities. Pro peg ? Openness, propensity to trade, trade concentration Pro float ? Incidence of real shocks The basics The political view (‘80s) Bands, “tablitas” other soft species: Exchange rate anchors as a “policy crutch” to compensate for the lack of monetary credibility or political power Pro peg ? high inflation, weak governments The basics The financial view (‘90s) The trilemma: as the world integrates, countries have to choose between monetary autonomy a stable ER The bipolar view: Exchange rate policy in emerging economies become more vulnerable to the limits imposed by the trilemma: hard peg or float The unipolar view: Balance sheet effects due to currency mismatches limit the scope for expansionary devaluations ? Hard pegs The tradeoff Oversimplifying: Fix vs. flex ? Enhanced monetary fiscal discipline (lower inflation) at the cost of greater sensitivity to real shocks output volatility… …except under FD (contractionary devaluations) Is this theoretical tradeoff validated by the evidence? Yes The tradeoff Preliminary evaluation: Pegs contribute to lower inflation expectations… …at the cost of greater output volatility… Regimes output volatility The tradeoff Preliminary evaluation: Pegs contribute to lower inflation expectations… …at the cost of greater output volatility… …and slower growth Regimes growth The tradeoff Preliminary evaluation: Pegs contribute to lower inflation expectations… …at the cost of greater output volatility… …and lower growth Balance sheet effects Subdued inflation f