供应链管理Chapter7The Value of Information.ppt

* Contractual Incentives to Get True Forecasts from Buyers Advance Purchase Contract Supplier charges special price before building capacity When demand is realized, price charged is different Buyer’s commitment to paying the special price reveals the buyer’s true forecast * Summary Bullwhip effect : concept, factors Quantifying bullwhip effect Centralized demand information Decentralized demand information Methods to cope with bullwhip effect Information sharing and incentive * * * Chapter 7: The Value of Information * Dr. YANG Ruina * * * Agenda Introduction Bullwhip Effect Information Sharing and Incentives Summary * Introduction Value of using any type of information technology Potential availability of more and more information throughout the supply chain Implications this availability on effective design and management of the integrated supply chain * Abundant Information Reducing variability in the supply chain. Reducing lead time. Creating better forecasts, accounting for promotions and market changes. Coordination of manufacturing and distribution systems and strategies. Enables retailers to better serve their customers by offering tools for locating desired items. Enables retailers to react and adapt to supply problems more rapidly. * Bullwhip Effect Customer demand for specific products does not vary much Inventory and back-order levels fluctuate considerably across their supply chain * Challenges in SCM * Example Sales quite flat Retailer’s orders fluctuate more than consumer sales Distributor’s orders fluctuate more than retail sales Supplier’s orders fluctuate even more This increase in variability as we travel up in the supply chain is referred to as the Bullwhip Effect! * 4-Stage Supply Chain * Effect of Order Variability The increase in variability in the supply chain * What are the causes of bullwhip effect? * Factor 1: Demand Forecasting Periodic review policy Characterized by a single parameter, the base-stock level. Estim