公路运输业对于内生产总值的影响分析1.docVIP

题 目 公路运输业对于国内生产总值的影响分析 关 键 词 分配比例 多项式拟合 概率分布 权重比例法 摘 要： 本文以该省主要城市的公路运输统计数据为背景，针对该省公路运输投资资金在各市的分配比例这一问题，科学的运用了MATLAB多项式拟合【1】，权重比例法【2】和概率分布【3】等预测方法，成功建立了两种投资资金的分配模型，求解出了这两种分配模型的分配结果，并比较了两者的优劣性以及自身的优缺点。 解决该省公路运输投资资金在各市的分配比例问题，就是使该省的公路运输业得到最优配置，从而对该省的GDP产生影响。本文提出两个基本模型：模型一，将各个城市2007-2011年公路运输投资占该省总投资的比例计算出来，然后通过线性分析，求出该省公路运输投资资金在各市的分配比例与时间的函数关系，并预测未来五年该省公路运输投资资金在各市的分配比例。模型二，（1）先用MATLAB多项式拟合各城市2007-2011年在公路运输商的投资曲线，并利用拟合出的曲线来预测未来五年各市的公路运输投资资金；（2）再用同样的方法求出未来五年该省的公路运输投资资金；（3）求出未来五年该省公路运输投资资金在各市的分配比例。 本文利用MATLAB多项式拟合法、权重比例法和概率分布的预测方法来预测未来五年该省公路运输投资资金在各市的分配比例，并验证该分配模型的合理性，以及用MATLAB编程拟合曲线得到预测曲线，提高了预测值的可信度。 参赛队号: 2100 所选题目: C 题 Abstract In this paper, by the highway transportation statistics the main city of the province as the background, according to the provincial highway transportation investment funds in the proportion of cities in this problem, the scientific use of the MATLAB polynomial approximation [1], [2] the proportion method and probability distribution [3] and other forecasting methods, successfully established a distribution model of two investment funds, to solve the distribution results of these two kinds of distribution model, and compared the two and their advantages and disadvantages. To solve the province highway transportation investment funds in the proportion of the problem is that municipalities, the provinces highway transportation industry to obtain optimal configuration, which is influencing the province GDP. This paper puts forward two basic models: a model, each city 2007-2011 highway transportation investment accounted for the total investment ratio is calculated, and then through the linear analysis, the function relationship between the highway transportation investment funds in the allocation proportion and time in the cities, and forecast the next five years the province highway transportation investment funds in the the proportion of cities. Model two (1), with the city MATLAB polynomial 2007-20