Global economic forecast 2011年世界经济预测.pptVIP

Master Template Demand is expected to weaken as monetary tightening bites in the developing world and as stimulus is withdrawn in the EU. However, rising emerging market incomes and urbanisation will underpin medium-term demand growth Years of underinvestment, particularly in agriculture, will push up prices Gold prices will come under pressure in 2012 as interest rates start to rise and investors reduce their holdings. Global economic forecast February 14th 2011 A new round of fiscal stimulus, together with continued QE, will maintain the momentum of the recovery in 2011 Persistently high unemployment is a serious concern, but firms should be more willing to hire this year The deleveraging process still has several years to run and will weigh on medium-term economic growth. A large overhang of houses will prevent a recovery of the property market Germany and the core are growing strongly but fiscal austerity and high borrowing costs will hold back growth in the periphery Expectations of an increase in the financing available to distressed euro zone member states has led to an improvement in sentiment. But these measures will not resolve the underlying solvency crisis We expect Portugal to need a bailout in 2011 but Spain to meet its funding needs in the markets Export performance in Japan will deteriorate in 2011, reflecting a deceleration of Chinese growth and continued yen strength The urgent need for fiscal consolidation limits room for further fiscal stimulus beyond measures already approved Weak domestic demand is putting downward pressure on Japanese prices again, so that deflation continues In China massive stimulus has aggravated existing imbalances. Further tightening of monetary policy is needed to tame inflation. As in China, monetary tightening is needed to check inflation. Growth is expected to remain strong on the back of robust domestic demand  Brazil’s performance has been driven by Chinese demand for commodities and by solid d