A Simulation Model for Aircraft Maintenance in an Uncertain 一种在一个不确定的飞机维修保障仿真模型.ppt

A Simulation Model for Aircraft Maintenance in an Uncertain Operational Environment Ville Mattila, Kai Virtanen and Tuomas Raivio Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Objective Simulation of flight and maintenance operations of the aircraft fleet of the Finnish Air Force (FiAF) Importance for maintenance designers Predicting supportability requirements Evaluating performance of operating policies Special interest in operations of crisis situations Uncertainty due to limited knowledge of such circumstances Flight and maintenance operations A complex logistic system Overall performance greatly influences the fleet’s operational capability Operational environment The fleet operates under a threat of an enemy Limited knowledge of actual encounters Uncertainty of operating conditions Uncertainty of model parameters and model form Flight operations in crisis situations Increased and uneven flight intensity Reacting to enemy’s actions Engagements Battle damages Maintenance operations in crisis situations Changed maintenance requirements Emphasis on battle damage repairs Varying intensity Decentralization of airbases Maintenance facilities threatened by the enemy Specialized maintenance personnel Uncertain supply of materials Uncertainty in model construction Construction based on incomplete information Emphasis of expert knowledge Experience of normal operations Live exercises and contingency plans Ambiguity in defining the model User is allowed the flexibility to describe a variety of operating policies and conditions The simulation model Discrete-event approach Features 3 squadrons operating from own airbases Central depot-level maintenance facility Periodic maintenance, failure, and damage repairs Personnel and material resources Implemented with Arena-software Structure of the model Model validation Evaluation by subject matter experts Assumptions, results Various groups of FiAF personnel In different phases of the modeling effort Com