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A somewhat disastrous start to PCN osteoporosisPCN骨质疏松症有些糟糕的开始
Questions? OSTEOPOROSIS 2011 Gregory Kline MD FRCPC Clinical Associate Professor University of Calgary Disclosures (12 months) none Risk Assessment WHO FRAX CAROC Reporting issues What level of risk? case 58 year old woman Brca (2005 – chemo, rad, tamoxifen to 2007) AML – allo stem cell Tx 2008 Ankle fracture 10 yrs ago running Prednisone x few months 2007 Ht 152.6 cm wt 61 kg. Labs normal. BMD Sept 2010: spine -1.5 hip -1.1, no change vs 2008 BMD report “pt gives a history of prednisone use and low trauma fracture” CAROC “estimated risk of fracture is high, 20-30%, drug therapy is recommended. CARJ 2005;56:178-88. FRAX or CAROC? FRAX Easy, intuitive, free web-based tool The whole world is using it Multi-factorial (controversy) Fun modeling during counseling Doesn’t include spine BMD CAROC Original Canadian data Simple Maybe just as good as FRAX at predicting # Maybe over-selects pts for Rx Depends on accuracy of radiology questionnaire! What risk to treat? Canada (implied) 10 % - nothing 10-20% - discretion 20 % - treat US 10 yr hip risk 2% 10 yr total risk 20% Or BMD -2.5 Let’s think about this Do we prescribe drugs to prevent wrist #? Do we prescribe drugs to prevent vert #? Do we prescribe drugs to prevent hip #? How to reconcile 10 yr risks with 3-5 yr trials? Assume we care mostly about hip #... Assume a RRR of 40% over 5 yrs Baseline risk (5 yr) 20% ? 12% = 63 person years to prevent # 15% ? 9% = 83 person years to prevent # 10% ? 6% = 125 person years 5% ? 3% = 250 person years 3% ? 1.8% = 417 person years 2% ? 1.2% = 625 person years 0.5% ? 0.3% = 2500 person years Assume we care mostly about hip #... Assume a RRR of 30% over 5 yrs Baseline risk (5 yr) 20% ? 14% = 83 person years to prevent # 15% ? 10.5% = 111 person years to prevent # 10% ? 7% = 167 person years 5% ? 3.5% = 333 person years 3% ? 2.1% = 555 person years 2% ? 1.4% = 833 person years 0.5% ? 0.35% = 3333 person years Overall, 32% reduction in all fractures in women over 50 Subgroups: 39
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