投资学Chap012.ppt

Figure 12.5 Moving Average for HPQ 12-* Trends and Corrections: Breadth Breadth: Often measured as the spread between the number of stocks that advance and decline in price. 12-* Sentiment Indicators: Trin Statistic Trin Statistic: Ratios above 1.0 are bearish 12-* Sentiment Indicators: Confidence Index Confidence index: The ratio of the average yield on 10 top-rated corporate bonds divided by the average yield on 10 intermediate-grade corporate bonds. Higher values are bullish. 12-* Sentiment Indicators: Put/Call Ratio Calls are the right to buy. A way to bet on rising prices Puts are the right to sell. A way to bet on falling prices A rising ratio may signal investor pessimism and a coming market decline. Contrarian investors see a rising ratio as a buying opportunity! 12-* Warning! It is possible to perceive patterns that really don’t exist. Figure 12.8A is based on the real data. The graph in panel B was generated using “returns” created by a random-number generator. Figure 12.9 shows obvious randomness in the weekly price changes behind the two panels in Figure 12.8 12-* Figure 12.8 Actual and Simulated Levels for Stock Market Prices of 52 Weeks 12-* Figure 12.9 Actual and Simulated Changes in Stock Prices for 52 Weeks 12-* INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS CHAPTER 12 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis Behavioral Finance Conventional Finance Prices are correct; equal to intrinsic value. Resources are allocated efficiently. Consistent with EMH Behavioral Finance What if investors don’t behave rationally? 12-* The Behavioral Critique Two categories of irrationali