我国物价上涨影响因素、趋势与对策毕业论文.doc

PAGE PAGE 2毕业论文我国物价上涨的影响因素、趋势与对策 摘 要当前，我国物价持续上涨，通货膨胀压力不断加大，已经成为影响国民经济运行的突出矛盾，稳定物价和控制通货膨胀成为当前宏观调控的首要任务，也是最为紧迫的任务。本文以CPI为指标，研究影响CPI波动的各种因素，包括固定资产投资增长率、原材料价格指数、平均工资指数、农产品生产价格指数、外汇储备等。本文根据中国统计年鉴最近十年的数据， 利用多元线性回归分析法研究影响CPI波动的主要因素。研究发现：CPI的变化主要受农产品价格以及原材料、劳动力、土地等成本价格变化的影响。最近几年住房价格大幅上涨的原因就在于劳动力、土地、能源和原材料等成本价格上涨，导致企业成本增加，从而推动房价上涨。另外，在食品方面，以猪肉价格为例，也受到成本上涨的直接影响。文章最后根据结论与当前国内经济形势预测未来住房、食品等主要商品价格水平的发展趋势，并从货币政策、财政政策、市场化改革等方面，提出应对物价上涨和控制通货膨胀的对策，包括控制能源、原材料、土地价格，降低企业成本，同时，控制货币供应量，减少企业税负，提高企业经营利润率，增加企业利润，提高人们的收入水平和实际生活水平。关键字：CPI； 通货膨胀； 多元线性回归； 因素； 成本； 货币供应 Factors affecting China to rising prices, trends and countermeasures Abstract At present, commodity prices in china continued to rise, pressures of inflationary continue to increase, which have become the prominent contradictions that affect the running of the national economy. To stabilize prices and control inflation has become the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, but also the most urgent task. This article，regarding CPI as the index，Study the various factors affecting the CPI fluctuations，including the growth rate of investment in fixed assets. raw materials price index, the average wage index. producer price index of agricultural products. foreign exchange reserves. we use multiple linear regression analysis to study the main factors of the CPI fluctuations,according to the China Statistical Yearbook data in the last decade.The study found that the changes of CPI is mainly affected by the impact of price changes of agricultural products and raw materials, labor, land and other costs. The reason that housing prices rose sharply in recent years is that cost of labor, land, energy and raw materials prices, leading increased cost of doing business, which drives prices up.In addition, the food, regarding the price of pork as an example, but also by direct impact of rising costs. Finally, We predict the future level of development o