金融学·课件梳理4-比率分析和财务预测.docx

2017-2018学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT112017-2018学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料金融学·课件梳理@群众演员Lesson 4 Ratio Analysis and Financial Forecast 第4课 比率分析与财务预测Today’s Agenda?Financial Forecast Ratio Analysis-ContFinancial Forecast1、Forecasting the Income Statement 收益表预测? First, we will use the “Percent of Sales” method for forecasting the Income Statement?Create a copy of the “Income Statement” tab, rename it “Pro Forma IS”?Add a 2015* column?Find COGS and SGA as a percentage of sales for 2013 and 2014?Assume the forecast for 2015 Sales is 2,455,000?Use the average of 2013 and 2014 to determine the percentage of Sales for the 2015 forecast?Now assume the firm will invest an additional $80,000 in fixed assets, which will result in an additional $8,000 in depreciation in 2015.?Assume Interest Expense is the same as 2014 (for now…we’ll come back to this)?The tax rate is the same as before, so we now have a 2015 projection for the Income Statement2、Forecasting the Balance Sheet 预测资产负债表?Create a copy of the Balance Sheet?Assume Cash is the same as 2014?Use the percent of sales method for A/R and Inventory?The investment should be included in PE?Assume 10 years straight-line depreciation, and set the depreciation on the Income Statement equal to this cell ?Use the percent of sales method for A/P and Other current liabilities?Assume ST Notes, Long-Term Debt, and Common Stock do not change?Assume that the forecast for Dividends paid is 400,000?Is there a problem with the pro-forma Balance Sheet??The Balance Sheet must balance, and the difference between the two sides we will label “Additional Funds Needed”资产负债表必须平衡，且差异双方将标签”需要“额外的资金?Use the IF() function in Excel so that if the Assets are larger, label this number “Deficit”, “Surplus” if Liabilities are greater, and “Balanced” if they are equal? Cowboy Corp will need to raise money to satisfy the Balance Sheet? This is not simple: for example, they can raise Long-Term Debt, but this will, in turn, increase interest expense