中国法定存款准备金政策的效果分析.doc

内 容 摘 要 法定准备金通常被认为是货币政策工具中的巨斧，其调整可能会对经济造成较大影响。近年来我国央行法定存款准备金率这一政策工具 关键词：法定存款准备金率 货币政策 政策效应 ABSTRACT The adjustment of legal deposit reserve ratio, which is always taken as a violent axe among the monetary policy tools, could make a magnitude effect on the economy. The people’s bank of China has use this tool pretty frequently in recent years, to deal with the continuous growing amount of foreign exchange, the raising price, the excessively large scope of credit, and the immoderate investment in fixed assets. However, the violent effect hasn’t appeared. By analyze the economic variables and the intermediate targets, we find out that the rise of legal deposit reserve ratio could hardly affect the price and the investment, and couldn’t impact the intermediate targets as noticeable as the expectation in theory. The result of econometric analysis has shown that there isn’t obvious relationship between the legal deposit reserve ratio and the investment in fixed assets, the relationship between the legal deposit reserve and the price is also very weak, but the legal deposit reserve ratio does influence the M2 and the scope of debt with a weakened effect. The rapidly growth of the basic money owing to the foreign exchange, the regulation of paying interest to excess reserve, the restriction on loan proportion and the changing ingredients of commercial banks’ assets and debts are to blame for the weakened legal deposit reserve ratio. The continually rise of legal deposit reserve ratio has made a bad influence on the small-size enterprises, and the central bank should regulate the loans by some measures like indirect credit guidance. KEY WORDS: legal deposit reserve ratio monetary policy effects of policy 目 录 一、相关文献综述 2 二、我国运用法定存款准备金政策回顾 4 （一）法定存款准备金制度在我国的应用 4 （二）我国近年连续上调法定存款准备金率的原因 4 三、我国法定存款准备金政策效果的判断与检验 7 （一）我国法定存款准备金政策有效性的定性分析 7 （二）我国法定存款准备金政策有效性的计量分析 11 四、改进我国法定存款准备金政策的建议 22 （一）法定存款准备金政策效果弱化的解释 22 （二）对我国法定存款准备金政策的使用建议 25 中国法定存款准备金政策的效果分析 存款准备金政策是最古老的货