埃博拉疫情把持模型.pdf

Statistical and Application 统计学与应用, 2015, 4, 70-85 Published Online June 2015 in Hans. /journal/sa /10.12677/sa.2015.42009 A Mathematical Model for Ebola Control 1 2 1 Haoxin Yang , Jiahui Wang , Xingui Tang 1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao Hebei 2 School of Computer and Communication Engineering, Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao Hebei Email: young_yhx@163.com, neuqwjh@163.com, tongdanson@ th nd th Received: Jun. 8 , 2015; accepted: Jun. 22 , 2015; published: Jun. 29 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract This paper aims to analyze the cases of Ebola in West Africa, forecast the future trend of the spread of the virus, and provide some consulting opinions for related departments to make deci- sions. Firstly, we construct the SIR-L model for Ebola epidemics based on the classical infectious diseases SIR model and the Logistic model to simulate and predict the spread trends of the virus. We get that the Ebola has crossed the peak period in the three main countries, but the cases of the Ebola are still at a high level. Then we forecast the new cases in the next week: 88, 28 and 238 cas- es for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, respectively. Secondly, by analyzing the data that we forecast, combing with the population size and geographical location of each country, a dynamical model is established based on gravity center method and gray theory, whic