我国新型农村养老保险对财政体系可持续性的影响研究分析.doc

?ò1úD?Dí??′???à?±￡????2??tì??μ?é3?D?D?μ?ó°?ì?D?? ?a?a?ùóú′ú?êo???·?·¨μ??￡?a·??? HYPERLINK ?ˉ??úS ??רìa??3??? HYPERLINK é??á±￡?????è??ר ìa o???C41???′ó??úo???2012?ê04?ú???-??3?′|???? HYPERLINK 2??-?D???·(?|)2011?ê12?úμú4??15ò3??ó￠??±êìa??A Study on the Impact of New Rural Endowment Insurance on the Sustainability of Financial System in China: Simulation Analysis Based on ?? the Generational Accounting Method??×÷???ò?é???ˉ??úS(1979-)￡???￡?ot??óà?Yè?￡?±±??′ó?§?-???§?o?±?ìêú￡?±±???? ???úèYìáòa?? ????à?ó?Auerbachμè(1991)ìá3?μ?′ú?êo???·?·¨￡??ùóú·?o?1ú?éμ?2?êy?ùéè￡?·???á??÷???°D???±￡?±·?°???2??tì??μ?é3?D?D?μ?ó°?ì?￡?￡?a?á1?±í?÷￡?°′?????°·?°??¨á￠?°D???±￡?±ì??μ2￠2??á???t?????óì??à?oμ￡￡??°D???±￡?±?2????à?′óμ??ì?y??2??tì??μμ??oμ￡?ù±?ò2??óDó°?ì?￡óéóú??è????§?D?yà?μ?×ê?e???°°′??ò??ê?ú?¨?ú′??????￠￡??t??3Dμ￡μ???è????§3¤êù·???·?3￡óD?T?￡?°D???±￡?±ì??μ′????t??μ??÷òa2??t?oμ￡à′×?è????oμ￡?ù′???à??e￡?è?1??t??°?è?1úμ??ù′???à??e??ìá???áé?o￡êD????135?aμ?????￡????t?????óμ??oμ￡2??á1y?à?￡òò′?￡??t???éò??ó?ì?°D???±￡?±?2????à?′óμ??ù?è￡?2￠?ú??óDμ?2?á|??????°?è?1ú??′?μ??ù′???à??e??ìá???áé?o￡êDμ?????￡?μ?ê?ìá??·ù?è2?ò???ò?2??ó′ó?￡This paper employs the method of intergenerational accounting raised by Auerbach et al in 1991 to analyze the effects of new rural social pension insurance plans on the sustainability of fiscal system. The simulation results show that the new rural social pension insurance system established according to current plan will not greatly increase the burden on the governments and the rate of the increase in the coverage of new rural social pension insurance system do not basically affect the burden of fiscal system. Because the cumulative funds in individual accounts are measured at one-year fixed deposit interest rate at present, the longevity risk of individual accounts bore by the governments is rather limited. The heavy burden of new rural social pension insurance system on the governments comes from the basic pension completely bore by the governments; and if th