国有银行不良资产.ppt

NPLs of Chinese State-owned Banks:Current Status, Origins and Disposal Methods M. Chen, C. Jia and X. Xu Guanghua School of Management Peking University Overview of China’s Banking Sector Brief history Before 1979: PBC 1979-84: Establishment of four SOCBs 1986- : Establishment of joint-stock banks 2001- : City Commercial Banks Market share by assets (Q3, 2004) SCOBs: 54.1% Joint-stock banks: 14.6% NPLs of Four SOCBs NPLs of Four SOCBs Origins of NPLs Policy loans SOEs versus private sector High level of debt of Chinese companies Interest rate control Low base rate; lower than USA, India and Korea Low spread between the deposit and lending rates Laeven and Majnoni (2003): in 2000, China: 3.6% and average of 106 countries: 6.67% Poor management and moral hazard Reasons for the Decrease in NPLs ratio Increase in total amount of loans In 2003, the net increase was RMB 2,770 billions (24% total loans between 1991-2003) Decrease in NPLs Capital injection by government Transfer of NPLs to AMCs In Q2 of 2003, NPLs increased by RMB 18.3 billion after taking into account of NPLs transfers Change in maturity structure of loans Methods of NPL Disposal Capital injection by government Establishment of AMCs Financing of AMCs Methods of asset disposal Auction Equity-debt swap Asset backed securities Increasingly more difficult Direct disposal by four SOCBs NPLs and Financial Stability of China NPLs continue to emerge in large amount The new NPLs in the next three years will be between RMB 600 billion to 1,050 billion (Zhong, 2004). Liberalization of banking sector Capital injection by government is becoming more limited Rapid increase in government debt Concluding Remarks Very limited success Critical in the next few years Going public may help but does not solve the fundamental problems * Year Stock issue Loan growth Stock issue/ Loan growth 1993 314.54 6335.40???? 4.96 1994 138.05 7216.62???? 1.91 1995 118.86 9339.82???? 1.27 1996 341.52 10683.33 3.20