petrochinatopic1_奥巴马政府执政下的美国能源政策.ppt

* The percentage of total U.S. energy consumption derived from imported energy falls by roughly half between 2011 and 2040. Imported energy is roughly one-fifth of total U.S. consumption now, falling to roughly one-tenth by 2040. 美国进口能源占比总能源消耗的比率从2011年至2040年将减少一半。从目前的约五分之一降至2040年的约十分之一。 Reduction driven by both supply and demand: Domestic oil and gas production increases due to new drilling technologies, and domestic consumption rate slows – though continues to rise – as energy prices rise and vehicles become more fuel-efficient in response to rising efficiency standards. 降低由供给和需求两方面驱动：国内油气产量由于新开采技术而升高；由于能源价格升高及车辆随着提高的效率标准而更更省油，国内能源消耗增长率将减缓-尽快总消耗仍将升高。 U.S. RELIANCE ON IMPORTED ENERGY 美国对进口能源的依赖 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration来源：美国能源信息署 LONG-TERM U.S. ENERGY MARKET TRENDS美国远期能源市场趋势 * Natural gas prices are regional in nature. The North American market can move independently of the European or Asian markets. These regional markets may eventually converge into a single global market as natural gas shipping technologies mature.天然气价格时区域性的。北美市场天然气价格可以独立于欧洲或亚洲市场。随着天然气运输技术的成熟，这些区域性市场有可能最终汇聚成一个全球统一的市场。 The North American price of natural gas fell sharply from 2005 to 2010 based on rapidly developing U.S. reserves, but will rise slowly again through 2040 as domestic production costs and global demand rise.2005至2010年，由于国内产量的迅速增加，北美天然气价格大幅下跌，但随着国内开采成本升高及全球需求增加，会于2040年再次缓慢上升。 Natural gas and renewables moderately increase their U.S. market share through 2040; coal stays flat.到2040年，天然气和可再生能源在美国市场占有率将适度增加，煤炭保持平稳。 MARKET SHARE AND PRICES市场占有率及价格 Natural Gas天然气 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration来源：美国能源信息署 LONG-TERM U.S. ENERGY MARKET TRENDS美国远期能源市场趋势 * Oil prices are global, and so are more unpredictable and less influenced by changes in U.S. production. 油价是全球性的，因此更加难以预料及更小受到美国产量影响。 Oil prices could rise sharply through 2040, could rise more slowly, or could stay relatively flat. Prices will be driven by the strength of the global econom