期权博弈评价基于主体和项目视角理论模型-2007天津会议论文.doc

期权博弈评价：基于主体和项目视角的理论模型 该论文是作者主持的国家自然科学基金“特大型工程项目评价的期权博弈模型及其实证研究”课题（编号的研究成果之一。 中南大学商学院 洪开荣 摘要：作者从期权博弈均衡分析和项目评价思维的结合性角度，提出了期权博弈评价（Option Game Evaluation, OGE）的方法体系。期权博弈是实物期权定价与博弈均衡分析的一种结合性概念，而所谓的期权博弈评价可以看成期权博弈方法与项目评价思维的融合。不同于传统的项目评价方法，期权博弈评价要素不再是一个简单值的比较（传统评价方法中净现值大于零与否的判断），而是以特定时期、特定信息环境、特定主体面向特定项目的期权博弈模型构建为基础，以均衡概念（期权博弈的均衡概念）、项目价值（项目价值的分析判断）和主体策略（项目主体的策略选择）为判别标准的理论分析体系。在具体判别中，可以根据主体数量和项目特征的差异，分别选择两主体单项目、两主体两项目或多主体多项目的期权博弈评价模型。这时，期权博弈评价结论不仅包含特定主体对于特定项目价值的分析判断，也反映了特定主体面向特定项目的策略均衡选择。 关键词：期权博弈评价；项目评价；期权博弈；策略均衡 Option Game Evaluation: The Theoretic Models Based on Agents and Projects Hong Kai-rong The School of Business, Central Abstract: From the united thought of option game and project evaluation, the writer presents the approach called Option Game Evaluation (OGE). Option game is a kind of concept of mixing real option valuation with option game equilibrium and so-called OGE approach is the newest development in the thought of project evaluation including option game equilibrium. Contrast to the traditional approach of project evaluation, the approach conclusion made by the simple judgment of whether the project NPV is more than zero or not, the essential factors of OGE approach are based on the different option game models which refer to different time periods, information conditions, agents and projects. The OGE is the theoretic system which evaluation criteria is related to equilibrium concept (the equilibrium analysis of option game), project value (the analysis of project value) and agent strategies (strategic choice of project agents). In reality of project evaluation, we could choose the one of three OGE models called two-agents and one-project, two-agents and two-projects and more-agents and more projects model. Moreover, the conclusion of OGE could be revealed by different project values and different strategic profiles which refer to the special agent and the certain project. Key words: Option Game Evaluation, Project Evaluation, Option Game, St