China 2011 Outlook Higher Ground精品分析.doc

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China 2011 Outlook Higher Ground精品分析.doc

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China 2011 Outlook Higher Ground精品分析

China 2011 Outlook Higher Ground StrategyStrategy ChinaNOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITEDChina 2011 OutlookHigher GroundHenry Wu, CFA+852 2252 2122henry.wu@January 2011Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 35 to 39. Strategy ChinaPositive outlook on China 2011Forecast both MSCEI China and HSCEI to offer gt;20% upside in 2011Implied PE (x)Historical average PE (x)Historical range (past 5 yrs)% diff. vs targetTargetCurrent index levelUpside potentiarailingForwardHighLowHighLowMSCI China 8 3 6 725% 14.4 12.1 1 4.6 12.6 104.18 2 7.23-20%205%HSCEI 1 6,000 1 2,69226% 13.6 11.4 1 3.5 11.7 20,400 4 ,990-22%221%Note: Pricing as of 31 December 2010, historical average is for the period from January 2002 –2010Source: Bloomberg, Nomura researchNomura China coverage –13x earnings, 21% EPS growth and 20% ROE for 2011F MkPerformanceEPS growth %ROEPE (x)PB (x)t capUSD bn1M3MYT2011E20122011E20122011E20122011E2012EGaming, Hotels amp; Leisure 4 6.44%28%110%13%389%18%31%29%38%33%29% 5 9.9 23.9 20.5 15.6 9 .9 9.3 6.1 4.6Health Care amp; Pharmaceuticals 1 0.0-6%-10%98%59%33%25%24%20%20%20%22% 3 8.2 27.5 21.7 17.2 5 .6 4.5 4.0 3.5Media amp; Internet 1 08.9-2%-1%43%21%48%42%29%41%42%39%34% 7 4.9 39.5 26.2 19.9 25.2 14.9 9 .1 6.1Transport/Logistics 8 9.0-1%6%29%-53%9364%11%-13%5%22%16%14% 2 6.5 15.3 13.6 9 .7 4.1 2.0 1.7 1.2Industrials 1 51.0-3%4%23%68%26%19%16%16%22%23%22% 2 3.2 17.0 12.3 10.1 3 .1 3.1 2.5 2.0Oil amp; Gas/Chemicals 456.36%15%20%-9%40%20%16%14%19%19%20%