房地产投资风险分析与综合评价secret.doc

摘 要 随着近几年国民经济的快速增长，房地产市场呈现出良好的发展态势，房地产业已成为国民经济中重要的基础性产业。房地产投资是一项综合性、专业性、技术性极强的活动，同时也是一个高投入、高回报和高风险的产业，这些特征决定了它是不同于一般产品的投资，因此必须对房地产投资项目存在的风险进行透彻的分析和科学的防范。这就迫切需要一种在实际中特别适用的理论方法对其进行定性与定量分析，以便国家在我国房地产业上做出正确的发展战略和规划,并引导投资者做出理智的投资选择。 本文首先阐述了房地产投资风险的定义及特征，对目前国内外比较常用的房地产投资风险的识别和度量方法进行分析，并评价了所列方法的优缺点。结合我国房地产投资的实际情况，按照房地产投资风险的来源把风险分为社会风险、经济风险、技术风险、经营风险与自然风险，并详细分析了这五大风险因素所包含的十七项子因素；然后建立了房地产投资风险评估指标体系，构建了基于多层次灰色评价法的房地产投资风险评价模型，并针对传统的多层次灰色评价法中综合评价计算过程存在的不足，创造性的对模型进行了两点改进：判断矩阵一致性改进和在评价模型中引入似然估计的概念，使模型计算结果更加精确。 然后本文以昆明市YJ房地产投资项目奥林匹克小镇·南苑为研究对象，进行了房地产投资风险的定性和定量相结合的实例应用研究。研究结果表明：多层次灰色评价模型集成了层次分析法和灰色系统理论的优点，充分吸取专家经验，评价结果较精确且符合项目实际情况，能够很好的达到风险分析的目的，具有较强的实用性和可操作性；改进后的多层次灰色评价模型数据分析更全面，为房地产开发商提供更为直观的决策依据。最后本文提出了房地产投资风险防范的基本策略，并从管理着的角度提出了具体的风险控制措施。 关键词 房地产投资风险，风险因素，多层次灰色评价模型，风险综合评价 ABSTRACT Along with the fast growth of the national economy, the real estate market also presents good development situation in recent years, and also the real estate already becomes a foundational industry in the national economy. However, the real estate investment is an activity which is strong in synthesize, profession and technique, at the same time also is an enterprise with high investment, high repayment and high risk. These characteristics cause that real estate industry is different with other product investments. We have to carry on a thorough analysis and science guard to the existent risk in real estate investment project. So a sort of practical special suitable theory and method to carry on qualitative and quantitative analysis is needed urgently, so that our nation to do exactitude development strategy and programming in our country real estate industry and lead consumer to do a rational investment choice. In this paper, the definition and characteristics of the investment risk of real estate is elaborated, the comparatively commonly used identifying and measuring methods of the risk of real estate are analyzed and the advantages and disadvantages of the listed methods have been evaluated. In com