【国际期货市场运作】第4组-国际期货-黄金期货分析.ppt

黄金的期货分析 第四组：杨翔渊，金莹，李艳梅，邓艳，田一秀，赵博超 Price： 27th may 2009 Contract period of Shanghai Gold Price209 yuan per ton Supply The newly yielded gold from mining long period of investment and high cost of mining production slightly decreased Central bank selling gold Central Bank Gold Agreement——limit the quantity reducing selling for safety Demand Gold manufacturing jewelry and electronics—increasing International reserve Monetary gold —increasing Investment demand Gold ETF Conclusion of supply and demand Go short in short term Go long in long term 1year US GDP The first quarter of 2009 the U.S. GDP fell 6.1%, stuck in the largest recession since the Great Depression. And the fact indicated that the global economy situation is still grim. PPI U.S. Labor Department data released Thursday showed increases of April PPI, higher than expected, promoted by significant increase of food prices. But because the economic recession weakened the companys pricing power, the core PPI of April only maintained a moderate increase. Data show that the manufactured goods PPI in United States rose 0.3%. March PPI fell 1.2%. Economists had forecasted it. CPI CPI Year decline in the U.S. hit a record since 1955 The U.S. Labor Department data released yesterday shows that, in March of this year over the past year, the United States consumer prices fell by 0.4% for the largest decline since 1955. March CPI dropped 0.1%. China GDP Chinas first quarter of this year gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period increased by only 6.1%, indicating a very depressed economy. With the weak economy, the weak demand caused by international financial crisis , coupled with continued high bubble of house prices and the unprospected domestic Chinese stock market, investment and financing of businesses and individuals have been seriously affected, resulting in declining of consumption, abnormal development of economy and the many hardships of life.