云南南盘江上游旱灾风险定量评估的研究.docVIP

云南南盘江上游旱灾风险定量评估的研究 　　基金项目:水利部重大基建前期项目“全国干旱区划及旱灾风险评估” （2011AB01）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）“气候变化对旱涝灾害的影响及风险评估（2010CB951102） 　　作者简介:常文娟（1985?玻?，女，山西平遥人，讲师，博士，主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E??mail:cwj1116@126.comDOI：10.13476/ki.nsbdqk. 　　摘要：以农业干旱灾害风险为研究对象，采用主成分分析法构造干旱综合表征指数来计算干旱频率，利用AquaCrop模型定量评估一定抗旱能力下的因旱作物损失，据此构建干旱频率-抗旱能力-旱灾损失之间的关系,用于定量评估旱灾风险。对南盘江上游西桥水文站以上区域进行实证研究的结果表明，在现状抗旱能力水平下，区内陆良县属于干旱易发区；当遭遇相同程度干旱时，陆良县与沾益县、麒麟区相比，其因旱作物损失率相对较大，这与实际情况相符；在现状抗旱能力水平下，研究区域遭遇百年一遇大旱时，其因旱作物损失率在15～20%之间。 　　关键词：旱灾风险；干旱频率；旱灾损失；南盘江上游 　　中图分类号：X43文献标志码：A文章编号：1672??1683（2014）04??0025??05 　　Quantitative Assessment of Drought Risk in Upstream of Nanpanjiang River in Yunnan 　　CHANG Wen??juan1,2,LI Jian??qiang3,LIANG Zhong??min4,HU Yi??ming4 　　(1.College of Hydraulic Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China; 　　2.Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security,Wuhan 430072,China 　　3.Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute,Ministry of Water Resources, 　　Beijing 100120,China;4.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) 　　Abstract:The Principal Component Analysis method was used to develop a comprehensive drought index and then to calculate the drought frequency,The AquaCrop model was used to assess the drought loss under a certain drought resistance capacity,On the basis,the relationships among drought frequency,drought resistance capacity,and drought loss were constructed and then applied to evaluate the agricultural drought risk quantitatively,The method was applied to the upstream of the West Bridge hydrological station in the Nanpanjiang River,The results showed that (1) Luliang County is the drought prone area under the current drought resistance level;(2) drought loss of Luliang County is relatively larger than that of Zhanyi County and Qilin District with the same drought degree,which is consistent with the actual situation;and (3) the crop loss rate of drought in the study