MF子区交通状态转移风险决策边界控制模型.doc

MFD子区交通状态转移风险决策边界控 制模型 丁恒朱良元蒋程镔袁含雨 合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院 根据交通流分布，决策区域路网交通状态转移风险是进行区域交通诱导与控制 的重要基础.宏观基本图(Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram, MFD)无需复榮 的路网0D数据，并可有效描述区域路网宏观特性，为解决这一问题提供了契机. 因此以MTO特性为基础，考虑诱导与控制条件下驾驶人的路径决策对子区交通 状态的影响，以路网最大完成率和最短总行程时间为约束，通过模糊风险管理， 建立平衡MW)子区交通状态与成本的风险决策模型，并采用ALRS算法对模型进 行求解.仿真结果表明，建立的交通状态风险决策模型可有效提高控制和诱导的 效率，同时保证突发情况下交通控制的实时性和有效性. 关键词： 城市交通;拥堵风险;控制决策;宏观基本图;交通仿真; 丁恒(1980-),男，安徽阜南人，副教授，博 士. dingheng@hfut. edu.cn 2017-03-30 基金：国家自然科学基金 Boundary Control Model of Decision Making for Traffic State Transition Risk of MFD Sub-region DING Heng ZHU Liang-yuan JIANG Cheng-bin YUAN Han-yu School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering， Hefei University of Technology; Abstract： According to the distribution of road network traffic status, the decision of traffic state transition risk is an important basis for sub-region traffic guidance and control. The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) can effectively describes the macroscopic characteristics of the road network without needs the complex OD data, which provides an opportunity to solve the decision problem. Therefore, regard the characteristics of MFD as the basis and consider the influence of the driver’s route decision on the traffic state of the sub-regions under the guidance and control conditions，a risk decision model is established to control the traffic state risk and cost of the MFD sub-regions. The decision model takes the maximum completion rate and minimum total travel time as constrains according to the fuzzy risk management model，and is solved by the ALRS algorithm. Simulation results show that the model can effectively improve the efficiency of control and guidance，and maintain the real-time and effectiveness of traffic control in the case of a sudden incident. Keyword： urban traffic; traffic congestion risk; control decision; macroscopic fundamental diagram; traffic simulation; Received： 2017-03-30 0引言 多样化的城市交通管控方式，不仅对微观车辆、交叉口和路段进行管理，还通过 交通诱导与控制的方式均衡优化路网车流