大型工程项目风险分析研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docx

大型工程项目风险分析研究 大型工程项目风险分析研究 RISK ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE PROJECT ABSTRACT Towarding the growth of our social and economic construction, there are more and more large projects to be planing,designing and implementing. As the large project need great capital investment , long construction period ,many effect factors and the characteristics of irreversible.Risk always appers during the course of project managemenr and greatly affect the course,time and quality of the project.So it is very important to carry on active management to the risk,to exactly and assess the isk in time,to dispose risk effectively and to decrease the risk loss to the lowest level.But some time the risk questions can’t be solved using traditional statistical method and mathematical method.We must search a new way to assertain and express the nonlinear reltion between risk factors and risk loss. In this paper,first summarizes the document of the related field,and according to the characteristics of large projects show the need for risk analysis.Secondly,based on risk analysis of the content,introduce risk identification, risk estimate,risk assessment and risk response methods and measures for detail.Based on the summary of previous evaluation methods,this paper points out the shortings of them ,then draw the theory of artifical neural network into risk evaluation,through an example of some kind of project and the training and examination of a group sample，it sets up the artifieial neural network model.At last，this model is applied to the real case of an engineering projeet to evaluate its risk level and satisfaetory result is made. KEY WORDS: large-scale projects,project risk,risk analysis,BP network mod ii 吃 型jCT织?二.、. f F · 原创性声明 ..，. --_但二二 飞江·.;.. ，周卢二1:-哩 I .. . . 本人郑重声明:所呈交的学位论文，是本人在导师指导 下，进行研究工作所取得的成 果。除文中己经注明引用的内容外 ，本学位论文的研究成果不包含任何他人创作的、己公 开发表或者没有公开发表的作品的内容。对本论文所涉及的研究工作做出贡献的其他个人 和集体，均已在文中以明确方式 ;j:jf-明。本学位论文原创性声明的法律责任出本 人承担。 学位论文作者签名:决 1将 R归: μ11Ji_1=- 月 7 同 ? 关于学位论文版权使用授权的说明 本人先全了解河