那提西银行-亚洲-经济理论-日本是否有明显的反应来抵消人口老龄化？.docx

Has there been a visible reaction in Japan to offset population ageing? Population ageing is going to affect most regions, and it will weaken countries’ potential growth unless there are mechanisms to offset the effects of ageing on growth. These could be: An investment and capital modernisation drive to increase productivity gains; An increase in the participation rate (the proportion of the workingage population available to the labour market); A fall in the structural unemployment rate; ??Higher immigration. Since population ageing has been more drastic and arrived earlier in Japan than in other countries, it is interesting to see whether these corrective mechanisms have appeared in Japan so as to determine whether they could also appear elsewhere. Flash Economics 14 May 2018 Flash Economics 14 May 2018 - 531 An investment and capital modernisation drive; A high participation rate; ??A low structural unemployment rate; but no immigration. Patrick Artus Tel. (33 1) 58 55 15 00 patrick.artus@ HYPERLINK /patrickartus @PatrickArtus HYPERLINK / Flash Economics Flash Economics Flash Economics Flash Economics PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 4 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 4 Flash Economics Flash Economics PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 2 pulation ageing is going to affect most regions Chart 1A shows the proportion of the population aged over 65; Chart 1B shows growth in the population aged 20-64 in the different regions of the world. We see that population ageing is going to affect all regions: Faster and more drastically in OECD countries, China and Latin America; - Slower and later in India and Africa. Population ageing will curb potential growth in all these countries and globally (Charts 2A and B). 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 Chart 2A World: Population aged 20 to 64 (as % per year) Sources: UN, Natixis forecasts -4 -2 0