赣州市中心城区商品住宅需求预测分析-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘要 摘要 万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 房地产的发展深远的影响着社会的其他各行各业，强劲的带动力、高关联度的特点使 得其在国民经济发展中占有了非常重要的地位。当前良好的经济环境下，国民经济稳步发 展，不足之处在于房地产领域出现了一系列矛盾，如土地资源浪费严重、房价收入比居高 不下、房价泡沫化加剧、房屋空置现象严重等。 赣州市中心城区商品住宅消费市场在迅速发展的同时,也凸显出许多问题,比如,商品住 宅价格增速过快，商品住宅供应结构不合理等现象，供给和需求因素是影响赣州市中心城 区住宅消费市场的两大基本因素,其中需求因素在当前赣州市住宅市场中起着重要作用，因 此,如何研究和调控住宅需求,对建设健康完善的赣州市中心城区住宅市场有着积极意义。本 文对国内外住宅市场需求研究进行综述,在对赣州市中心城区商品住宅市场发展历程、现状、 问题进行分析的基础上,利用灰色关联度分析法对赣州市中心城区商品住宅市场需求因素进 行定性及定量分析,筛选出中心城区 GDP 值、人均可支配收入、人均居住面积、非农业人口 四个与商品住宅销售面积关联度较高的四个指标，再通过构建 GM（1,1）模型对这四个主 要影响因素指标进行定量预测,结合 GM（1，N）模型得出未来五年赣州市中心城区商品住 宅需求量，最后提出基于调控住宅市场需求，促进赣州市中心城区商品住宅市场稳定健康 发展的对策。 关键词：商品住宅；需求分析；关联度分析；灰色预测； I Ab Abstarct Abstarct A profound impact on the development of real estate are other sectors of society, a strong driving force , characterized by a high degree of correlation makes it occupies a very important position in the national economy . Under the current favorable economic environment , the steady development of the national economy , the real estate field inadequacies that emerged a series of contradictions , a serious waste of resources such as land , price earnings ratio remains high, the housing bubble of the increase, and serious phenomenon of vacant housing . Ganzhou city center commercial residential consumer market , while the rapid development, but also highlights the many problems , such as the rapid growth of commercial housing prices , commodity housing supply structure is irrational phenomena such as supply and demand factors affecting residential Ganzhou city center two basic elements of the consumer market , where demand factors play in the current housing market in Ganzhou important role , therefore, how the research and regulation of residential demand , perfect for building a healthy housing market in Ganzhou city center has a positive meaning. This paper studies the demand for domestic residential market are reviewed , on the basis of Ganzhou city center commercial housing market development history, current situation , problem analysis, the