环渤海地区三大产业能耗评价及预测-企业管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 能源是国民经济发展的“血液”。能源问题直接关系到社会经济的可持续发 展以及国家、地区的竞争力。随着环渤海地区经济的迅速崛起，能源消费量越来 越大，而三大产业的能耗是总能耗的主要组成部分。能源成为环渤海地区三大产 业进一步发展的“瓶颈”之一。因此，对环渤海地区三大产业历史能耗状况的评 价以及未来能耗的预测是必要的。 本文从产业发展与能耗关系的角度，利用“脱钩”理论对环渤海地区三大产 业发展与能耗之间的脱钩状况进行了分析，据此评价环渤海地区三大产业节能降 耗的效果。 本为利用 LMDI 因素分解模型，将环渤海地区三大产业的能耗变动的影响因 素进行了分解，具体分析了各类因素对环渤海地区三大产业能耗变动的贡献程 度，为制定“脱钩”政策提供理论支持。 本文根据对环渤海地区三大产业历史能耗变动规律的分析，利用灰色系统理 论建立了 GM(1,1)灰色系统预测模型，根据趋势外推的思想，对环渤海地区三 大产业 2020 年的能耗状况做了预测。 考虑到未来影响环渤海地区三大产业能耗的各类因素会发生较大变动，本文 利用情景分析法，以 LMDI 能源预测模型为基础，设置了基础情景、节能情景和 强化节能情景三类典型情景，并对各类情景下环渤海地区三大产业 2020 年的能 耗状况做了情景模拟，并分析了主要影响因素，从而为当前决策者制定经济、能 源政策提供依据。 关键词： 环渤海地区 三大产业能耗 “脱钩”理论 LMDI 因素分解 灰色系统理论 情景分析 ABSTRACT Energy is the “blood” of the national economy. It is directly related to the sustainable development of social economy and the competitiveness of the nation and region. Along with the rapid development of Bohai Rim, energy consumption is becoming larger and larger. The main components of total energy consumption are three major industries’ energy consumption is. Energy will become the “bottleneck” of the further development of the three major industries in Bohai Rim. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and forecast the energy consumption of the three major industries Bohai Rim. From the perspective of the relationship between the industry development and the energy consumption, this paper uses the “decoupling” theory to analyze the decoupling relationship between the three major industries development and the energy consumption in Bohai Rim and evaluate the effect of the energy conservation of the three industries in Bohai Rim. Additionally, this paper uses LMDI factor decomposition model to decompose the factors which influence the energy consumption of the three major industries in Bohai Rim. In order to provide theoretical support to make the “decoupling” policies, this paper analyzes the contribution degree of the factors to the change of the three major industries in Bohai Rim. According to the analysis of the change in energy consum