数学期望在经济决策中地运用.doc

实用标准文案 PAGE 精彩文档 石家庄经济学院本科生设计 PAGE II 摘 要 在这个充满生存竞争的世界里，商人若进行一次投资，做一个决策他所需要考虑的是是否能获得利润.社会处处是风险，从而要想在竞争中立于不败之地他们需要采取科学的方法对其所面对的风险进行量化评价，从而制定出有效的“决策”．而数学期望在解决不确定因素的问题中有着重要的作用。数学期望是反映随机变量总体取值平均水平的一个重要的数字特征，本文通过讨论数学期望在企业获得利益最大化，超市抽奖，投资者进行投资，委托代理问题，减少工作量问题等方面的一些实例。来阐述数学期望在经济决策中的重要作用，并总结出数学期望在经济决策中的一般运用方法，同时还对数学期望在多级决策中的运用作出了讲解,并总结了相应的一般方法。 关键词：数学期望；决策；多级决策 ABSTRACT In this competitive world which is full of survive, if an investment or a decision made by a businessmen, he needs to consider whether he can make a profit. The society which is a risk to the competition, they need to take the scientific method for the quantitative evaluation of the risks they would faced, and develop effective decision. And mathematical expectation in solving the problem of uncertainty factors play an important role. Mathematical expectation is a reflection of the general average values of random variable， and it is also an important characteristic of the digital, this paper will discuss mathematical expectation in the enterprises to gain maximum benefit, supermarket, investors invest, draw the principal-agent problem, reduce workload some aspects of the problem. for example, mathematical expectation in the economic decision-making, and summarizes the important role in economic decision by making a mathematical expectation ,which is in general use. Also the application in multi-stage decision made some interpretation and summarizes the general method of corresponding. . Keywords:Mathematical expectation;decision-making; Multi-stage decision-making 精彩文档 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc263151640 1 数学期望的定义 PAGEREF _Toc263151640 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc263151641 1.1 离散型随机变量的期望 PAGEREF _Toc263151641 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc263151642 1.2 连续型随机变量的数学期望 PAGEREF _Toc263151642 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc263151643 2 经济决策分析 PAGEREF _Toc263151643 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc263151644 2.1 经济