邯郸冬小麦干热风发生规律和风险预报.PDF

中国农学通报 2017,33(25): 105-109 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 邯郸冬小麦干热风发生规律及风险预报 宋晓辉，薛 敏，杜亮亮，张 珺 （河北省邯郸市气象局，河北邯郸056001） 摘 要：干热风是影响小麦产量和品质的农业气象灾害，对其研究意义重大。笔者利用邯郸气象资料和 小麦产量数据，采用趋势预测和统计方法，对干热风发生规律及其风险预报进行了研究。结果表明：邯 郸轻度干热风一年两遇，重度干热风一年一遇，西部山区和平原北部是轻度干热风灾害的高风险区，平 原东部和中部是重度干热风灾害的高风险区；通过相对气象产量百分率与气温、湿度和风速等气象因子 的相关分析进行干热风风险预报因子的初选，采用逐步回归方法，建立干热风风险预报方程。风速和最 高气温是影响邯郸冬小麦生长后期的关键因子，可以进行邯郸干热风灾害风险预报。 关键词：干热风；发生规律；风险预报 中图分类号：S166 文献标志码：A 论文编号：cas Dry-hotWind:OccurrenceRegularityandRiskForecastforWinterWheatinHandan SongXiaohui,XueMin,DuLiangliang,ZhangJun (HandanMeteorologicalBureau,HandanHebei056001) Abstract: Dry-hotwindisoneoftheagriculturalmeteorologicaldisastersaffectingtheyieldandqualityof wheat.Theauthorsadoptedthetrendpredictionandstatisticalmethodtostudytheoccurrenceregularityand riskforecastofdry-hotwind,byusingthemeteorologicaldataandthewheatyieldinformationinHandan.The resultsshowedthat:milddry-hotwindhappenedtwiceayear,whileseveredry-hotwindhappenedoncea year,andthewesternmountainousandnorthernplainregionswerethehighriskareasformilddry-hotwind, whilethecentralandeasternplainregionswerethehighriskareasforseveredry-hotwind;theforecastfactors for dry-hot wind risk were first selected through the correlationship analysis between the relative meteorologicalyieldrateandmeteorologicalvariablesincludingtemperature,humidityandwindspeed;the dry-hotwindriskforecastequationwasthenestablishedusingthestepwiseregressionmethod.Basedonthe equation,windspeedandthehighesttemperaturewerefoundtobekeyfactorsaffectingwinterwheatgrowth duringlatergrowthstage. Keywords:dry-hotwind;occurrenceregularity;riskforecast 0 引言 严重，重度干热风灾害还可能造成小麦枯萎死亡，一般 干热风