大学学士(统计学专业)学位论文.docVIP

****大学学士学位论文 学号：A******** 黑龙江省城乡居民收入差距预测分析 学生姓名：*** 指导教师：*** 所在院系：理学院 所在专业：统计学 研究方向：统计学 **** 大 学 中国·哈尔滨 2014年5月 Northeast Agricultural University Bachelor Dissertation No.： Prediction and analysis of the income gap between urban and rural residents in Heilongjiang Province Name: *** Supervisor: *** College: College of Science Specially: Statistics Direction: Statistics **** University China·Harbin 2014.5 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT I 摘要 改革开放30多年来，黑龙江省经济发展迅速，城乡居民生活质量大为改善。但与此相伴的是城乡居民收入分配状况逐步恶化，收入差距逐渐拉大，逐渐衍生出一些严重的社会问题，这与建设和谐社会，全面建设小康社会的目标相悖。 本文从我省城乡居民收入差距着手，描述了从1978年以来我省城乡居民收入差距变动的轨迹。运用国际上普遍认可的统计分析软件—SAS软件，通过时间序列分析方法中ARMA模型对城乡居民收入差距今后趋势变化进行预测。其次通过参考相关国内外研究学者的论著基础上，总结出一套与我省实际发展情况相适应的理论上的建议。 关键词：城乡收入 社会矛盾 SAS 时间序列分析 收入差距预测 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT II Abstract Since thirty years of reform and opening up，The economy of Heilongjiang province developed rapidly.Urban and rural residents quality of life has improved a lot.But and this is accompanied by the status of income distribution of urban and rural residents gradually deteriorated.Income gap is widening gradually, gradually developed some serious social problems, this and the construction of harmonious society and the comprehensive construction well-off society goal is harmful. This paper first began to study the income gap between urban and rural residents of our province.Describes since 1978 the income gap between urban and rural residents of our province changes.The use of statistical internationally recognized analysis software - SAS software.Application of time series analysis methods of ARMA model predicts changes in the income gap between urban and rural residents.Secondly, through the works referring related research scholars at home and abroad, summarizes the development policy recommendations suitable s